University of Georgia economists say the state's economy will improve slightly in 2012, but will also look a lot like 2011.
The economists delivered their annual Macon/Middle Georgia Economic Outlook to a group of about 200 business people and public officials at the Macon Centreplex.
Robert Sumichrast, dean of the Terry College of Business at the University Of Georiga, said the state will continue to see slow growth and an increased risk of recession. He said current political rhetoric adds to that risk.
"Given our political climate, there is considerable risk that fiscal policy will be tightened too quickly, leading us back into recession," Sumichrast said.
In past years, Georgia has only slowed its job loss, but the UGA experts predict the state will add 18,000 jobs this year.
It would be the first annual gain in employment since 2007, but Sumichrast said that's only because the most troubled sectors, like the financial industry, housing, and information technology, are no longer shedding as many jobs as they have been over the last four years.
The projected net job growth is only about 5 percent of the 360,000 jobs Georgia lost during the recession, and it won't put a dent in the state's unemployment rate, which is almost 10 percent.
Sumichrast said at this rate, Georgia will recoup those job losses by 2020, four years after the nation gains back its jobs.
"Georgia is poised to perform on par with the rest of the nation," Sumichrest said. "But that doesn't satisfy me, and I suspect it doesn't satisfy you either."
Sumichrest said the state could speed up its growth beyond the nation's pace by supporting research and development, venture capitalism, and being more aggressive with incentives to draw businesses.
"Most of you came of age when Georgia regularly outperformed the nation by huge margins," he said. "Going forward Georgia is unlikely to outperform the nation unless we change our economic strategies and development policies."
Trip Shinn, associate director of the Center for Economic Analysis at Macon State College, said Central Georgia has also been adding jobs, particularly in education, health, and the financial sector. Meanwhile the state has been losing financial jobs.
He said the local job growth is also slow, but any growth is a good sign.
"People should be more positive than they have been." he said. "It's easy to continue to feel down about the economy because the economy have been in such bad shape. But the economy will not be in bad shape forever. I think there's more cause for cautious optimism than for pessimism."
The economists predict the construction and financial sectors will begin to rebound in 2013.