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Georgia's COVID-19 case curve was dropping. Now it's showing signs it could start going back up.

Recent data from the Georgia Department of Public Health suggests an increase in new daily cases could be on the way.

MACON, Ga. — For several weeks around the time of the state's shelter-in-place order, the average daily rate of new COVID-19 cases confirmed across the state dropped.

Now, new data suggests that trend could be reversing.

On April 3rd, Georgia's shelter-in-place order went into effect statewide.

At the time, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH), the state was recording an average of 581 new cases of COVID-19 per day.

That rate continued to climb until about halfway through the shelter-in-place period, when the average of new daily cases peaked at about 770 per day on April 22.

Then it started to drop.

It hit about 681 new cases per day on average on May 1st -- the day the statewide shelter-in-place order was lifted (a shelter-in-place order for the "medically fragile" is still in effect).

The drop continued, to a five-week low of 505 new cases per day on average on May 11.

However, more recent data suggests that roughly 260 case-per-day drop from April 22 to May 11 could be in jeopardy.

The DPH warns its data from the most recent 14 days could be incomplete because of the way it collects and graphs its data.

Typically that means new daily case totals are under-reported in that window.

Even so, the data currently available in the 14-day window already suggests the average number of new cases could be increasing.

By May 19, the preliminary figure had climbed to 675 new cases per day, on average. That's on par with data from May 1, the day the shelter-in-place order was lifted.

Making a definitive judgement on the trend though won't be possible until that data moves out of the 14-day window.

COVID-19 deaths have charted a more stable course in Georgia lately.

According to data from DPH, more than 1,800 people have died from the virus.

However, since late April, the average daily number of confirmed deaths has consistently floated between 20 and 40.

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