The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
The administration now expects 10-17 named storms, with 5-9 of them becoming hurricanes. Of those, they're predicting that 2-4 may become major hurricanes.
On average, the Atlantic Basin sees 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The new forecast numbers would make 2019 an above average season, if they were to verify.
The upgraded forecast comes as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) moves toward a more neutral phase. When the ENSO is in its warm phase, wind shear over the Atlantic increases.
Wind shear limits tropical development and with ENSO now in a neutral phase, wind shear is expected to decrease leading to more favorable conditions for tropical development.
The Atlantic Basin typically sees an uptick in activity during August. Development can occur anywhere from the open Atlantic, to the Caribbean and Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico.
The climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season comes during the second week of September.
Regardless if things get active or not, keep in mind it only takes one storm to have a significant impact in Central Georgia.
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